Friday, June 12, 2009

Public Debt - Ruling Elite (Pun intended) undoing its sin with another one

The worst global economic storm since the 1930s may be beginning to clear, but another cloud already looms on the financial horizon: massive public debt. The "RICH" and "Elite" governments around the world are borrowing vast amounts as the recession reduces tax revenue and spending amounts.

The IMF report I read the other day suggests that the public debt of the ten leading rich countries will rise from 78% of GDP in 2007 to 114% by 2014. These governments will then owe around $50,000 for every one of their citizens. The bigger question now is will they default inflate or somehow manage?

Its a classic case of a dog trying to catch its own tail. In the short term government borrowing is an essential antidote to the slump. Without bank bail-outs the financial crash would have been even more of a catastrophe. Financial Institutions form such an integral part of the world economy that a free fall is not permissible. That said, even if we do come out of recession (formal now), governments’ thirst for funds will eventually crowd out private investment and reduce economic growth. More alarming, the scale of the coming indebtedness might ultimately induce governments to default or to cut the real cost of their debt through high inflation.

The "Rich" government, as I shall refer to it as, has come up with the worst possible solution - "Printing money to buy government bonds". That's what the real worry is. How can you avoid inflation and eventual default or vice-versa? BTW, isn't that what Japan did?

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